Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Process
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
